The technology convergence, though still full of unknowns, is basically a done deal. Granted, the full transition, which requires that we re-equip every television station, revamp every production house and change over every box in every house, will happen over a period of years, even decades. But that does not obscure the fact that the visible horizon is entirely digital. Try to find even a silent movie devotee who does not concur that:

• Terrestrial broadcasts and cable transmission of digital signals will steadily increase.
  
  
• New digital technologies will fundamentally change the way radio broadcasters program, produce, market and distribute.
  
  
• Succeeding generations of in-home receivers will offer a widening variety of interactivity, Internet access and DTV; display devices will continue to grow bigger, brighter and sharper.
  
  
• Traditional television programming will be enhanced with greater levels of interactive information and activities.
  
  
• The distinction between what we now call a computer and what we now call a television set will become increasingly blurred and inevitably irrelevant.
  
  
• New methods of advertising and marketing will emerge, along with new business models and new revenue sources for broadcast, cable, satellite and production companies.
  
  

“Seamless Integration”

The timeline for these changes remain uncertain. But they will come to pass. The word "convergence" is on its way out. It's served its purpose. The technical infrastructure of all the digital media is sorting itself out,” comments Lynn Claudy, Senior Vice President, Science and Technology, the National Association of Broadcasters.“The major challenges we face now are not technological,” he adds, “the technology is not driving things any more...the first generation is there at every level.”

Claudy and others see the new challenge as one of “seamless integration.” What has been mostly behind-the-scenes activity is now emerging from the background and being placed in front of the consumer.

The goal of seamless integration is, quite simply, to give the consumer access to different media and media services without forcing them to think about or even notice underlying convergence issues.

Clearly, the situation calls for a new frame of mind, a new way of looking at and thinking about entertainment and information media, technology and services. Sixty years have passed between the time the first television set was offered for sale and the first digital receivers went on the market. By most estimates it will only take about a tenth of that time to put DTV receivers into a third of U.S. TV households.

Just as DTV is being born, computer penetration in U.S. households is approaching 50 percent. And then there’s the Internet. Barely a topic of discussion even three years ago, the Internet is the first technology to reach 50 million homes within its first five years.

According to research by ZD Market Intelligence, 30 percent of all households and 61 percent of households with PCs, are now wired into the Net. In just the first half of 1998, seven million households added on-line capability. The research firm estimates that if this growth rate continues, Internet penetration could approach 75 percent of U.S. households in 1999.

A study by Showtime found that 20.2 million people keep a PC and their television in the same room and went on to point out that 10 million households say they watch TV and surf the Internet at the same time. In the final episode of “Seinfeld” a third of the traffic to the show’s Website and two-thirds of the on-line chat occurred as the show was airing. The “Seinfeld” episode forces us to rethink the issue of convergence - to get past the technology and focus on the experience.

It stands to reason that the combination of the PC and television presents extraordinary new opportunities. However, individuals and organizations must adopt entirely new perspectives on the relationship between media, entertainment and commerce. The “killer app” for convergence is the combination of television as an exposure medium and the Internet as a marketing vehicle - convenience and entertainment for the consumer; interactive marketing for the advertiser. When you combine the $40 billion in ad expenditures for TV and cable advertising with the $750 billion spent annually on all types of direct marketing, the business case for convergence needs no further discussion. It makes so much sense that the consumer should not have to worry about the wiring or which input is currently selected. It will be seamlessly integrated in a digital television set that also has an off-air digital tuner inside which is also cable-ready. I think that's where the American family wants to go with digital television.